June 2012 Primary Elections Takeaway – Tea Party Fail

So the anti-incumbent thing didn’t work this time–not to mention the wind in the Tea Party sails appears to be fading–at least for now.

And while I admire the massive tidal wave of signage (and passion) of the “Dan” campaign, for me he was not a a compelling candidate.  My friends at utahdatapoints came up with scenarios where Hatch won 51/53/56 to 22/23/25 for Dan.  My favorite data guy, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight, recognizes that predictions are tricky (a must read discussion if you find yourself frustrated with the lack of good numbers before the vote.)  But what about post-game analysis?  Politico’s take:

Orrin Hatch’s textbook campaign

Hatch’s thumping of GOP challenger Dan Liljenquist served as a reminder that the quality of a campaign still matters. He offered a textbook example of how GOP Senate incumbents should run in an era of conservative grassroots ferment.

He recognized the danger early on — his 2012 campaign began the moment his junior colleague, Bob Bennett, was denied renomination in 2010. He built up a huge cash advantage, worked the grass-roots hard and choked off Liljenquist’s oxygen supply by declining any televised debates before the primary.

via Primary results 2012: Five lessons from the June 26 primary elections – POLITICO.com.

Update 7/2/12:  The take from Pignanelli/Webb (a rare bright spot at DesNews) where the former muses that “voters do not care about the minutia of qualifications and experience details. The victors instead touched the hearts of citizens by appealing to issues they understood” and the latter observes “The bottom-feeding political consultants and candidates who practice these dark arts ought to be embarrassed. All candidates have to be ready for these trashy campaigns and prepare enough firepower to counter the distortions. It’s the Wild West out there, and it’s not going to get any better.”

The Poltico-Theological Meaning of Memorial Day

From the Boston U academic who argues that religious literacy is important and offers this analysis of “The American Bible“–a sort of canon of unofficial-but-agreed-upon readings that unite us as Americans:

Memorial Day is a day to remember our fallen soldiers. It is also a day to work to repair the chain of memory that links us to our shared past—a day to revisit both Lincolns “Gettysburg Address” and the great tradition of conciliation he exemplified. “We are not enemies, but friends,” he said in his First Inaugural Address. “We must not be enemies.”That doesnt mean we must agree. There is nothing un-American about criticizing a book in the “American Bible.” Look Lincoln in the eye and tell him that liberty, not equality, is Americas founding proposition. Tell King you have a different dream. But as you criticize these men, know what you are doing. You are not opting out of America; you are opting in.

via Stephen Prothero: Memorial Day and the American Bible – WSJ.com.